Seven years after declaring an ambitious target to generate 50 per cent of its electricity from renewables by 2030, Jamaica is facing a sobering truth — it won’t get there in time.
Despite progress in renewables such as solar and wind, experts cite economic hurdles, infrastructure limitations, and slow adoption as key barriers. Now, the question remains: What does this mean for the country’s energy transition?
The initial goal of achieving 30 per cent by 2030, part of the Vision 2030 National Energy Policy (NEP), reflects the country’s commitment to sustainable energy. In 2018, Prime Minister Andrew Holness announced an increased goal of 50 per cent renewable electricity generation during the commissioning of a state-of-the-art solar PV system at his government office. This revised target at that time reflected a stronger commitment to reducing dependence on imported petroleum, mitigating price volatility and minimizing environmental impact.
Now, experts caution that significant challenges lie ahead for Jamaica’s transition, ranging from economic feasibility to infrastructural limitations and public behaviour.
Senior Lecturer at the University of the West Indies, Dr Canute James, who has reported extensively on energy transition, highlighted the role of private sector investment in Jamaica’s transition.
“The government sets the policies and targets and sometimes gives incentives to encourage the move away from fossil fuels, but the private sector must drive the change. If it is not profitable, it will not be done,” he explained.
He noted that Jamaica's transition to renewable energy could be economically advantageous, since the country neither produces nor exports oil, unlike Trinidad and Tobago or Guyana.
“Embracing renewables would therefore reduce oil imports and potentially lead to lower electricity costs over time,” James said.
For this, James highlighted companies such as the Jamaica Public Service Company Limited (JPS) and their role in the country’s energy transition.
Matching James’ position is a 2023 JPS report which highlights the company’s efforts in advancing renewable energy. Here, Senator Matthew Samuda, Minister without Portfolio in the Ministry of Economic Growth and Job Creation, commended JPS for its contributions in integrating renewables into the national grid. He noted that these efforts support the government’s goal of procuring nearly 200MW of renewable energy, a vital step for Jamaica as a small island state.
However, James still warns that without profitability, the private sector may not scale renewable projects quickly enough to meet targets.
Aligning with James’ stance is a report from the International Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources. According to researchers Delmaria Richards and Helmut Yabar, Jamaica is unlikely to meet its
ambitious target of 50 per cent renewable energy generation by 2030. The study projects that by 2030, renewable energy will account for about 23.5 per cent of electricity generation, increasing to 37 per cent by 2050. Even with a combined output from all renewable sources, the researchers suggest that Jamaica’s current energy sector operations make achieving the 50 per cent target by mid-century improbable.
Despite the predicted delay, James still believes progress in transition is inevitable, even for JPS.
“JPS is central to any government programme for energy transition. Given the global shift towards renewables, it’s inevitable that JPS will move in that direction as well,” he said.
Joshua Anderson, a graduate of Electrical Engineering and current master’s student in Sustainable Energy, emphasised the need to consider the social implications of energy transition.
“If there’s one thing we have to understand about Jamaica and our energy problem, it’s that the solution isn’t just technical. We’re a developing country with a growing economy, and many factors influence our energy landscape,” Anderson explained.
He noted that despite advancements in renewables like solar energy with prices becoming more affordable over the past decade, challenges persist.
“While solar has become much cheaper and much more efficient, has that really made a difference for us?” I don’t think for many people it means much,” he said
According to The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), solar energy offers significant potential for Jamaica, but its affordability and savings impact are mixed. The study says advances in technology have reduced the costs of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations, with levelized costs of energy (LCOE) dropping by 27.2 per cent between 2021 and the projected costs for 2030. However, it says large-scale adoption still requires substantial initial investments, and that there are integration challenges.
For this, Anderson added that for the average consumer, the shift to renewables hasn’t yet translated into tangible benefits.
“The idea of renewable energy is great, but we need to ensure it’s balanced. Right now, it seems like one set of people are benefitting while the majority are not. If that’s the case, it doesn’t matter how much renewable energy we build,” he said.
Another significant obstacle to Jamaica’s renewable energy generation is its limited land space for more large-scale solar and wind farms.
James explained, “The country doesn’t have enough land for sufficient wind farms or solar farms to generate the required energy. Hydropower is also limited because our rivers are neither large enough nor consistent in flow.”
He believes it is unlikely that Jamaica will ever provide all its electricity from renewables like some developed countries. “Even if we exceed the 50 per cent target, there will still be lingering dependence on fossil fuels for electricity production,” he reasoned.
Despite the challenges, both experts agree that increasing renewable energy production will bring economic and environmental benefits.
James points to the example of the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus, which has switched from JPS to its natural gas power plant. “This demonstrates how institutions can take steps to reduce reliance on fossil fuels,” he said.
He added that this effort is still commendable, as the transition from oil to natural gas sets the pace for the renewables transitional phase. “Natural gas can serve as a lever to move more quickly into renewables, but it’s not the final solution,” he said.
Anderson reiterates the potential for renewables to create a more sustainable future. “While Jamaica’s contributions to global greenhouse gas emissions are minimal, we are responsible for leading by example. Transitioning to renewables can position Jamaica as a regional advocate for sustainable energy.”
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